All companies share a problem of imagination?

An entrepreneur called from a private jet en route to a secret island conference hosted by Peter Thiel.

“All participants are tasked with presenting a contrarian business prediction: a Black Swan event no one sees coming… Any ideas?” he asked.

“Take your pick! all companies face a problem of imagination preparing for AI. They have the best AI experts, but aren’t creative enough to anticipate how AI could disrupt their own business,” I replied.

“Which company would no one ever suspect is at risk of being pummeled?” he inquired.

“Bet against Apple,” I suggested. “In a few years, investors will wish they’d shorted Apple stock.”

He laughed. “That's crazy. Apple is the most valuable company on Earth… Ok, explain why!”

“The way I see it, Apple's success has rested on five main pillars—all about to be toppled by AI:

1) Superior hardware becomes irrelevant when the most powerful AI brain lives in the cloud.

2) Intuitive interfaces will be useless when AI handles the typing and clicking interactions for us.

3) The App Store loses utility if an AI assistant interacts with services directly in the backend.

4) An integrated product ecosystem will feel outdated when AI manages across devices.

5) Their luxury status… If 50% of the U.S. already owns your product: Are you still a luxury brand?”

“But won't Apple just incorporate AI assistants and also see their stock skyrocket?” he asked.

“Apple is lagging behind in the AI race and forced to open up to third-party AI providers,” I explained. “After years of building impenetrable walls, they are inviting a Trojan horse—OpenAI—into their fortress.”

He was silent. “Ok… that’s one really bold contrarian prediction to bring to Thiel’s conference,” he replied.

A year later, legendary investor Warren Buffett would surprise the finance world by dumping his Apple stocks. My entrepreneur friend called grudgingly, admitting: “Ok, ok…You were right again!”

“Not quite,” I responded. “Apple’s pillars are still standing. Their stock should rise before it falls… Give AI 2 more years…”