A different speed & complexity?

We have trouble conceptualizing new scenarios that differ from our past experience. This is especially true imagining AI’s compounding growth.

When we start doubling a number, the sequence initially seems logical: 1 / 2 / 4 / 8 / 16…

The difficulty really starts as the compounding growth continues: 1 / 2 / 4 / 8 / 16 / 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 / 512 / 1024 / 2048 / 4096 / 8192 / 16384 / 32768 / 65536 / 131072…

Most people asked to guess how many times better an AI compounding every year would be, for example, in 17 years, would intuitively think: 10 times better? ... maybe 20 times? … maybe 30 times more than now?

Very few would answer: “It would be logical for AI to be: One hundred and thirty-one thousand, seventy-two times better than now. And barely three years after that, it will be a million times more powerful than today.”

That’s just our problem understanding counterintuitive growth: Imagine being asked to estimate the infinite repercussions of AI’s impact on our economic, political, legislative, sociological, psychological systems…?