How fast could AGI develop?

In 1965, the inventor of Moore’s Law predicted that computer chips would double their capacity every two years. For the next six decades, computing power consistently doubled, defying all skeptics.

In the last 30 years computing power has increased a billion times. Nevertheless, AI is now advancing much faster than Moore’s Law.

The 2019 Stanford AI Index report indicated that AI’s computing power is roughly doubling every 3 months. This would theoretically suggest that in just 7.5 more years, AI could potentially be a billion times more powerful than it is today.

This speed of growth would seem unsustainable, nevertheless the same was said of Moore’s law for six decades by incredulous experts.

Ultimately it makes little sense to debate over the exact time frame in which AI could surpass all of human intelligence. Technology unfortunately advances at a much higher rate than our wisdom.

Be certain that our future will happen exponentially faster than our past.