Calibrating our aim to imagine the future

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool we can use to refine, perfect, and improve our ability to imagine and predict future scenarios.

Make your predictions as specific as possible—describe in detail how you envision future changes will unfold. Explain the reasons, evidence, or experience you’re relying on to make these projections.

Keep a record of all your predictions and regularly monitor their accuracy and certainty. Continuously adjust your probabilities of certainty based on new information.