Experts have a problem of imagination?

Shortly before the Wright brothers’ first flight, The New York Times experts published the headline: “It will take humans 10 million years to fly.”

Similarly, four decades later, Thomas J. Watson, the Chairman of IBM, announced: “There is a world market for maybe five computers.”

And barely three decades after that, Ken Olsen, the founder of DEC, a major 20th-century American computing company, reportedly said: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”

Our experts’ inability to imagine our technological future is well-documented throughout history.

Unfortunately, this time they face a much harder challenge: comprehending AI’s compounding speed of growth while also keeping in mind that AI’s recursive self-improvement will simultaneously reduce both the need for their involvement and their ability to understand the technological changes.

As AI advances, our experts will be left in the dark. Much like the story of the three blind men who encounter an elephant for the first time—while one touches the trunk, another holds the tail, and the third grabs a leg—none can imagine the complete shape of the giant AGI-elephant in the room.

And while they’re busy with the elephant, very few are preparing for the impact it will leave in its path when unleashed on society.