Will AGI really be smarter than us?

When we think of human intelligence, we often take pride in humanity’s greatest achievements in science and engineering. However, we tend to forget that many of these advancements are the result of knowledge accumulated over generations, driven by a small percentage of exceptional individuals—those in the top 0.01 percent of the IQ spectrum. Most of us, even with the knowledge we have today, would struggle to recreate these breakthroughs.

The reality is that the majority of people have an IQ between 85 and 115, allowing them to perform traditional jobs. We also often overlook that approximately 12% of the population (around 30 million Americans) have an IQ below 83—a level deemed “untrainable” by the U.S. military.

Any intelligence advantages we currently hold over AI are temporary. AGI will quickly climb the IQ ladder to levels far beyond our comprehension. Yet, many fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger effect—a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge overestimate their abilities. In simpler terms, the less you know, the more confident you are that you know it all.

It’s neither imaginative nor wise to assume we will continue to outthink AI. If AI is like a child growing at a rapid pace, the only intelligent action we can take is to influence its growth positively while we still have the chance.